Weighted On-Target Percentage: Week 13 in review
Let's talk about Week 13 and how each of these 2025 quarterbacks handled their business.
With just one week of the regular season left in College Football before conference championship weekend, this 2025 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks had much on the line in Week 13.
Some put up consistent numbers, some stood out in a big way, and some cratered under the late pressure of a close game in the fourth quarter. With a healthy sample size, we have a pretty great grasp on who these gunslingers are and where their draft stock will stand when April rolls around.
I’ve watched, charted, and digested each of their games from the past weekend and added it to the Weighted On-Target Percentage database. And as I do every week, we are going to take a look at how each of these guys performed over the weekend.
So where does this quarterback class sit after their Weighted On-Target Percentages and Week 13 charts were updated?
Weighted On-Target % totals through Week 13
With 13 weeks in the books, we have more than enough of a sample size to get a firm judgment on just how accurate these quarterbacks are. Again, just one piece to a much larger puzzle, above are how those numbers have shaken out thus far.
Shedeur Sanders continues to be the most accurate quarterback in the class, Cam Ward is as volatile as he has been over the first four years of his career, and once popular names like Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers, well, continue to fall out of favor.
Let’s look at each quarterback’s Week 13 performance, however.
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado vs. Kansas
Kansas took a lead early and never looked back in this game.
Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter did their best to pull the Buffs back into this game, but there was no answer for Jayhawks’ running back Devin Neal. All-in-all, Sanders played about as solid of a game as he could have under the circumstances, with one big-time throw that he would love to have back.
Despite a few sacks in this game, Sanders displayed the ability to navigate and step through muddy pockets on multiple occasions. He even had a touchdown dropped late in the fourth quarter that would have made his stat sheet look a little shinier.
Overall, it was another week of consistent play from Sanders. That is what continues to separate him from an otherwise volatile class of quarterbacks.
Cam Ward, Miami vs. Wake Forest
Outside of one interception that would make you want to run your head through a wall, Cam Ward played one of his best games of the season against Wake Forest. It was a nice bounce-back win after being upset by Georgia Tech in their last outing.
Ward was on-target on both of his deep shots down the field in this game and was 5-of-8 working over the intermediate level. His ball placement is still spotty overall, but Ward stacked a strong game this week as he continues to be projected as a first round pick.
He is still playing skittish against three and four-man rushes where more poise and willing to work in the pocket is desired, but there continues to be no reason to doubt the tools of Ward.
With Syracuse last on the schedule and a shot at the ACC title against prospectively SMU, can Ward finish his season strong and cut down on the anxiety-provoking decisions?
Drew Allar, Penn State vs. Minnesota
This was the first week in quite some time that Drew Allar put multiple big throws on tape. He threw two beyond 25 yards, connecting on one of them. He is still relatively hit or miss on these throws, and is now up to just 14 chartable throws of 25 yards or more. This is by far the fewest in the class.
There is no doubting the arm talent of Allar, and he is proving to be a bit more limber than initially thought. His relative consistency, even if he isn’t putting big throws on tape, has an appeal to it.
PFF has Allar charted with just nine Big Time Throws all season, a measly 3.4 percent. However, they also have him charted at just five Turnover Worthy Plays as well, a stellar 1.6 percent.
Allar is just safe. Too safe, but safe.
Ultimately, it would still be a shock to see Allar to declare instead of head back to Penn State for his senior season.
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana vs. Ohio State
The cracks have begun to show for Kurtis Rourke against teams that have more physicality and athleticism than the Hoosiers. While he beat Michigan, it was his worst performance of the season. Until this weekend.
Rourke started the game by making a few nice backside throws over the middle on an opening touchdown drive. Then the wheels fell off for the Maple Missile. He threw just three passes all game over 15 yards in depth, and none of them found the mark.
He was seeing ghosts as the game went along and as his distrust for his protection built up. It messed with his short game accuracy and timing, missing bad on three separate screen game throws. He does not have the arm talent, even for a bigger dude, to compensate for the lack of windows he was given to throw into as well.
I’ve been pretty adamant about letting Rourke be a fun college quarterback and story, and even more so now. Indiana still has a healthy shot at the playoffs as the SEC implodes, so Rourke may just get another big game to sling the rock in.
However, Rourke has always been a Day 3 quarterback. Let him be a Day 3 quarterback and an enjoyable story as the Hoosiers look to rebound and continue their fun run in 2024.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU vs. Vanderbilt
Garrett Nussmeier, after three straight games of mind-numbing decisions and poor accuracy, played the best game of any of these 2025 NFL Draft prospects in Week 13.
While his deep ball still cannot find water (now sitting just 14-of-45 on the season when pushing the ball down the field), there was a lot to love about some of the throws that Nussmeier was making over the middle of the field and along the boundary against Vanderbilt. He finished 12-of-14 throwing the football at the intermediate level of the field.
I remain a bit mum on Nussmeier’s profile as a whole and think he compares closest to Mac Jones with more arm flexibility, but the timing and decisions that Nussmeier made in this game against the slippery Commodores were extremely promising.
He needs to go back to school and figure out, mostly from an anticipation perspective since his arm isn’t getting any stronger, how to get his deep ball to land. However, in a weak draft class, all it takes is one team to fall in love with you to make declaring (even if not ready) worth it.
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss vs. Florida
Jaxson Dart has a decent-sized bandwagon on social media. Consider me one who is most skeptical as to why.
While Dart can use his legs at an above-average clip to his advantage, his arm is just… okay. Beyond that, the speed of which he sees the field in an offense that spreads the defense out and gives him a ton of answers pre-snap is extremely concerning. When Dart does decide to throw the football, he has proven to be volatile.
That came to life in the worst way in a loss to Florida that effectively ended Ole Miss’ shot at the College Football Playoffs as Dart threw two ugly interceptions late in the game. Generally speaking, however, Dart is a fairly accurate thrower.
His Weighted On-Target Percentage reflects that. However, Dart is a case of the limitations of the metric itself that does not measure arm talent, football acumen, and more. These are the areas where Dart’s profile falls substandard.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama vs. Oklahoma
We are now firmly in “back to school” territory for Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe. His season has been a complete roller coaster, and he just finished out his third game where he looked like an undrafted free agent quality passer.
He was completely lost against Oklahoma. Milroe could not locate apex defenders and threw interceptions right into the laps of a couple of defenders in this game. While his deep ball was on point against the Sooners, it was his inability to work on-time in the short game that raised a massive red flag as we get into the final stretch of the season.
Teams will love what Milroe can do with his legs, but 4.3 speed will only take him so far. Milroe, while he showed strides as an in-structure passer in multiple games this season, still has a great deal of work to do before he takes the leap to the NFL level.
Carson Beck, Georgia vs. UMass
This had the chance to be a game for Carson Beck to keep the train rolling down the tracks. Instead, Beck put together an incredibly uneven performance against UMass on Saturday.
His Weighted On-Target Percentage continues to fall weekly as his deep ball accuracy continues to do the same. The majority of Beck’s yards, outside of three completions beyond 15 yards down the field, were created after the catch by his playmakers. In this game, Beck struggled to push the ball down the field and took a couple of ugly sacks.
Beck’s saving grace might be that the rest of the SEC is crumbling around them, so he may just have another shot at an SEC Championship Game and at least one more game in the College Football Playoffs. Good performances in those high-stakes settings will certainly help to tick his stock arrow up (even if minimally).
But Beck will be drafted nowhere near where he was being mocked before the season started.
Quinn Ewers, Texas vs. Kentucky
Listen, Steve Sarkisian is a smart dude who can scheme around a lot of deficiencies. But I feel like a broken record: Texas will not be a legitimate contender when the College Football Playoffs roll around until they start Arch Manning.
Ewers has proven incapable of pushing the football down the field. He has been on-target on just seven passes of 25 or more yards this season, and he is 0-for-8 deep down the field combined in his last two games.
At this point, what has been said has been said about Ewers. Every week is just a repeat performance of the same tendencies. His draft stock has plummeted this season, and it is hard to imagine a team drafting him before Day 3 of the 2025 NFL Draft.