Let's talk about Garrett Nussmeier
Let's talk about Garrett Nussmeier
The LSU quarterback has a ton of 2025 NFL Draft hype, but what does the tape say?
One of the hottest names in the 2025 NFL Draft class right now is LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Entering his game against Texas A&M over the weekend, Nussmeier had prominent figures in the industry singing his praises. This included Reese’s Senior Bowl director Jim Nagy calling out anyone who was not keen on him, and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler elevating Nussmeier to his No. 1 quarterback in the class through the first eight weeks.
Does Nussmeier live up to the hype, however?
Based on my midseason quarterback rankings and where he sits in my Weighted On-Target Percentage metric, it is evident that I am not as high on Nussmeier as consensus seems to be getting to. In my midseason rankings, I gave Nussmeier just a fifth round grade, sitting at QB7 in the class.
The first half of his game against Texas A&M seemed to play into the hands of those who see Nussmeier as a top quarterback in the class. The second half played into those who have a tough time projecting his skillset and game to the next level.
So here we take a look at that Texas A&M game, what stood out positively and what stood out as areas for improvement and break down just why Nussmeier’s hype ultimately lies somewhere in the middle.
Where does the upside come from?
Tabbed to have upside by multiple draft analysts with credibility in the industry, that is just an element of his draft profile that is hard to see.
Starting with his arm talent, Nussmeier can spin it to a certain extent. The flexibility he possesses in his arm is noticeable. That ability to create throwing windows by dropping his arm into multiple angles is something that will translate to the next level.
When throwing from a firm base and over the middle and in the short game, Nussmeier shows the ability to drive the ball and generate some RPMs on the football. However, Nussmeier is a strainer to generate the torque necessary when he has to press and push the ball vertically and outside the numbers.
His lower half tools are less notable than his arm. We’ve talked about the sack avoidance and the pocket work. However, Nussmeier’s athletic ceiling is significantly capped when he is forced out of structure and needs to make a play on his own.
This does not mean that he cannot get on the move a bit to buy himself an added second, but he is not going to cause defenses to gameplan around his legs. Nussmeier doesn't want to run, but he can do the bare minimum when he needs to.
Otherwise, however, the upside is hard to find on his tape.
The sack avoidance conversation
Nussmeier is the least-sacked quarterback in the nation. He is in the top third of the nation in Time to Throw, and his pressure-to-sack percentage is the best in all of College Football at just 3.74 percent.
But the conversation is more nuanced than that. For starters, he is playing behind two potential first round picks at offensive tackle. This should not be seen as a negative, however. Nussmeier has shown some smoothness in the pocket, stepping through windows to find receivers down the field.
However, there are some pretty confusing reps for slightly muddied pockets where Nussmeier has a habit of falling off of his line and drifting to his left. This often leads to Nussmeier throwing from an uneven base where he cannot generate RPMs on the football.
This happened a couple of times against Texas A&M. Once it led to an underthrown deep ball down the field, the second time it led to a checkdown (which is a fine play to make!) when a deep crosser was running open in a window that Nussmeier could have stepped into.
So yes, Nussmeier’s pocket work is largely positive, but he is missing some throws that could result in chunk plays down the field if he was not so anxious to slide toward the checkdown.
There are also times when Nussmeier needs to have the situational awareness to just take a sack as well! His first interception, the one that turned the game on its head, was a case where the LSU quarterback should have fought to bring the punt team on.
It was 3rd and 15 already deep in his own territory. If we ignore the receiver working back to him on a comeback on the boundary that Nussmeier missed, it was bad situational football to throw that football up for grabs and across his body.
Take the sack. Punt the football. Play defense. LSU was up by 10 points at that point in the game. A&M then found themselves eight yards from the endzone and scored the very next play to cut the LSU lead to three.
Most of his pocket work that is praised comes against three or four-man pressure as well. However, when Nussmeier is faced with a disguise upfront or a blitz, the tables tend to turn.
Can he figure out post-snap rotations and disguises?
When Nussmeier is given exactly what he is shown pre-snap, he is stellar at getting the ball out quickly and on time and keeping the LSU offense ahead of schedule. This play below is a perfect example.
The Aggies give him a two-high look with defenders squared up hip-to-hip with his receivers. While this looks like two-man, Texas A&M could be disguising the coverage. However, the motion man and the second-level defender following the motion man across the formation sell this out as two-man.
Leaving the middle of the field vacated as the defender traveled in motion, Nussmeier replaces the departing defender with a slant to the slot receiver who has a nickel playing in off-man.
However, it’s not always that easy, and it wasn’t in the second half of this game. A&M started throwing different looks upfront, making Nussmeier question his protection. They started dropping defenders out into coverage and bringing late and disguised pressure from the fringes. And Nussmeier couldn’t account for it.
In the clip above, the Aggies stack six guys in the box, leaving LSU with a six-on-six look with the running back staying to protect. You can see Nussmeier calling out the protection, indicating a slide right to pick up the wide defenders in the call. They have three-on-three on the left side, easy enough.
However, what Nussmeier must know when kicking his protection into a slide right is that he has to be the one to account for any additional pressure coming off the left side. He does not do so, leaving him to get hit by a nickel blitz as he’s trying to hit an open receiver along the boundary.
Now let’s talk about the interceptions.
All three were bad. We’ve already talked about the first one, now let’s talk about the second one and how Nussmeier mistook having an opportunity against man coverage vs. actually getting zone.
The outside corner is clearly in a bail look. Nussmeier should have been able to tag it as zone coverage, Cover 3 to the boundary. However, with a second-level defender following the motion man, the LSU quarterback assumed man. The slot does not stick with the number two receiver and instead heads to the flat in his zone responsibilities.
And the crazy thing? Nussmeier almost threw another pick on the very next offensive play against the very same look! He pulled the football on an RPO, pump faked, and then shot for the flat. He is lucky that one fell to the ground.
When the game is perfect around Nussmeier, he is quite good. He has not quite learned how to hit the curveball yet though.
When Garrett Nussmeier is forced to push the ball down the field…
The 2025 NFL Draft hopeful had some bad misses to open receivers in the second half. The purpose of this article is not to pick on Nussmeier or to point out all of the things he did wrong against Texas A&M.
However, accuracy has been my biggest issue with his draft profile all season long. This is why he came out with a fifth round grade in my midseason rankings, and has such a low Weighted On-Target Percentage.
When Nussmeier strains to push the ball down the field or outside the numbers, his accuracy falls off a cliff. He missed three receivers outside the numbers in the second half, and they were all three pretty bad misses.
This has been a trend.
On the season now, Nussmeier is on-target on just 30 percent of his throws of 25 or more yards in depth (12-of-39). When shooting outside of the numbers, Nussmeier is only hitting at a clip of 23-of-39. He’s lethal over the middle and in the short game, but issues arise when he is forced to put some force onto the football.
Let’s wrap it up
Garrett Nussmeier is an extremely efficient quarterback when he can stay ahead of the sticks or on schedule. However, when he is forced to play from behind and press, he begins to show cracks in his game. The quarterback he draws comparisons to, and one I tend to agree with, is Mac Jones.
Jones went first round after a stellar season at Alabama in the COVID year of 2020. However, Alabama had two first round wide receivers, a first round left tackle, and a first round running back on that team. The Crimson Tide steamrolled everyone they played and Jones rarely had to play off-schedule.
That was not the case in the NFL, and the lack of tools to elevate the players around him in New England caused a quick burnout with the Patriots before he was traded for a Day 3 pick.
We saw this with Nussmeier against Texas A&M. The first half was smooth sailing as LSU controlled the game for the first 30 minutes. However, as the Aggies began to fight back, tie the game, and then take the lead, Nussmeier was forced to press and pull his team back from behind. It led to three bad interceptions and a few bad misses down the field.
There is a ton of room to question the cognitive side of the game when Nussmeier is not presented post-snap with exactly what he is shown pre-snap from opposing defenses. Nussmeier tends to have a tough time diagnosing and working through dropping off defenders, rotating safeties, and disguised blitzes.
He’s a first-year starter with limited reps at the college level despite being in his fourth-year at the college level. Nussmeier would benefit from going back to LSU for a fifth year. However, with Bryce Underwood coming in and with Nussmeier being a hot name in a weak quarterback class, all parties may prefer for him to take his talents to the NFL.
Nussmeier might go in the first round. It is a weak quarterback class and he has some fans around the NFL. However, it’s hard to see anything more than a career backup and spot-starter at the next level with Nussmeier’s game.
I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again, but the hype right now is a bit much for what the LSU quarterback is putting on tape.