Luther Burden III is still WR1
Despite a down year, Luther Burden III put out excellent, translatable (with some creativity!) film
Entering the season as a top receiver in the 2025 NFL Draft class with Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Missouri Football’s Luther Burden III still lives up to the hype despite a down season.
While this is seen as a down class, that does not stand for the talented top of the class. And that includes Burden III despite seeing his production dip by 45 percent in 2024.
Suffering through a steep decline in play from quarterback Brady Cook, who also missed time with Drew Pyne seeing snaps, this lack of production was not on the shoulders or effort level of their standout receiver. If anything, it was a lack of true effort or creativity to get the football into the hands of the All-American, who saw 25 fewer targets than he did a year ago.
A year ago? Burden III amassed over 1,200 yards receiving and nine touchdowns, putting him on NFL radars. Make no mistake, he hasn’t fallen off those radars either.
Burden III is still WR1 and let me tell you why.
Certified ball magnet
Luther Burden III has dropped just seven passes on 147 targets over the last two seasons. That sticks him with a measly drop rate of just 4.5 percent. His 2025 NFL Draft counterpart Tetairoa McMillan dropped eight passes this season alone with a drop rate of 8.7 percent.
He plays with soft, strong mits and excellent catch technique to haul the football in away from his body. Through contact or in contested situations or not, Burden is going to fight through to make a play on the football.
Even those 50/50 balls over the past two seasons for Burden have not been truly 50/50 balls. He is reeling in contested balls at a 55 percent clip when forced to work through contact.
Burden is as sturdy and dependable as they come when he is called upon. Even when he is asked to extend away from his frame or contort his body to find the football.
Elite body control down the field
Luther Burden III has a knack for finding the football and almost floating near the white lines to make the catch. He is automatic on back-shoulder throws and adjusts his body with ease to put himself in position to bring in the football.
Even with defenders draped on him, Burden works himself overtop to stack the defensive back, hides his hands and frame from being worked through, and then throws his late hands at the football.
It is to the point when Burden III is targeted down the field or along the boundary it is becoming a foregone conclusion that he is going to find a way to come down with the football. This has made him a lethal threat on slot fades and shots down the seam.
It’s poetry in motion to watch.
The NFL Draft’s most lethal threat after the catch
We’ve covered Burden’s ability to find the football down the field and make a play consistently, now let’s talk about the most popular part of his game: the ability to create chunk plays after the catch.
While Luther Burden III’s YAC numbers took a steep hit with the rest of his production, there is no doubting his body of work after the catch. In 2023, he was third in the entire nation in yards after the catch with 724.
With a dense lower half, Burden is a tough ask to bring to the ground in the open field. Not only does he possess the explosiveness to run through wimpy tackles, but he has the quick twitch and speed to shake a defender out of his shoes and leave him in the dust.
Burden III is an electric playmaker who has superstar potential with his ability to take any short pass for a house call. For a team that needs to find a way to stretch the field laterally, Burden is an excellent extension of the run game.
Luther Burden III’s NFL projection takes creativity
While the tape is there to feel confident tabbing Burden III as the top receiver in the class, his projection to the NFL does admittedly take some creativity to figure out. That starts with his alignment and usage at Missouri.
In 2024, Burden spent 85 percent of his time in the slot for the Tigers, and that is congruent with his breakout season in 2023. So the big question that has to be asked when looking at Burden’s transition to the NFL is whether or not a team thinks he can hang out wide as a Z.
Based on his physical tools and how he wins on tape, that answer is an easy “yes.” Burden plays through contact at a high level off of the line of scrimmage, fighting down the field, and at the catchpoint. Even if he did not face press man coverage a ton at the college level, he has the requisite tools to do it.
Besides, the majority of his production that is not coming after the catch is coming down the field or along the boundary. He already knows how to win outside the numbers.
But there is reason to feel uncomfortable even asking the question about a player who is expected to be drafted in the top half of the first round. The second question that must be asked about his skillset heading to the league is the limited route tree he was asked to run.
Burden ran a ton of slants, sticks, seam routes, and slot fades at Missouri, but not much more than that. However, looking at the throttle and hip sink that Burden plays with, there is no reason to think he does not have the suddenness and fluidity to snap off any route asked of him.
So when we are talking about his route running ability, Burden III is not polished, but that has more to do with what he was asked to do at the college level versus what his athletic ceiling and skillset could allow him to become.
There may just be a learning curve in anticipating his quarterback and syncing up choice routes at the next level that he has not been asked to run.
In the limited reps where Burden is facing press-man coverage, he does well to shake free off the line of scrimmage without wasted movement. Burden can play outside and win at the next level.
For the TL;DR crowd
Look past the box score and just watch.
Watch how Burden III is used at Missouri, watch his explosiveness, play strength, and fluidity, and imagine more for him at the NFL level. That is a superstar-caliber playmaker who possesses lightning in a bottle every time he touches the football.
And it’s not like he’s a YAC merchant either. While he turns into a football player after the catch, some of the most impressive reps that Burden III put on tape in 2024 come down the field where he can show off his refinement to stack, hide his hands, contort his frame to the football, and float along the boundary to bring in the football.
It takes a bit more creativity to imagine his role at the NFL level compared to that of Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, who is quite solidly an X receiver with a massive catch radius and surprising fluidity for his size. However, the ceiling on Burden is tremendous in the hands of an offensive mind who can see past using him solely as a slot receiver like he was used at Missouri.
Luther Burden III has every bit of the merit to be the first wide receiver off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft. And he should be.