QB Corner: A final look at Cam Ward's Weighted On-Target Percentage profile
How did Ward perform from an accuracy and ball placement perspective?
The 2025 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks is seen as a two-man race: Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward.
There are many elements to evaluate at the quarterback position from arm talent to pocket work to footwork to their eyes, and more. However, one aspect of quarterback play that has proven tricky to correct at the NFL level is ball placement and accuracy.
Josh Allen is the poster boy of improved accuracy from the college to the NFL level (one of these days I’ll try to hunt down some Wyoming 2017 film and chart for myself). However, Allen has essentially proven to be an outlier. I’ve found 2017 Louisville Tape and even Lamar Jackson was working his eyes backside and was on-target at an average clip in his college career.
So that’s where we are going to focus our attention in this article while focusing on the Heisman Trophy finalist Ward: just how accurate is he now and how should we feel about it heading into the NFL? I’ve charted every singly one of his games for my Weighted On-Target Percentage metric and hope to add some clarity to the conversation.
As always, the full-season charting of Ward and all of the other high-profile 2025 NFL Draft quarterbacks can be found here.
Let’s take a look at how Ward performed from a ball placement and accuracy perspective this season at every level of the field and how his final Weighted On-Target Percentage plays out against the first rounders over the last two seasons:
Looking closely at the charting profile of Cam Ward
Let’s start with the deep ball.
Ward was on-target on just 18-of-43 percent of his deep balls, falling in with a 41.86 percent clip when throwing the ball 25 or more yards down the field. The average among the quarterbacks that I’ve charted over the last three years in this regard sits at 53.91 percent, and the average among first rounders is 57.9 percent.
Ward misses the mark deep.
What about at the intermediate level and outside the numbers? When throwing toward the boundary between 10 and 24 yards, Ward is on-target at a 64 percent clip. The average sits at 65.4 percent and the average among top-32 picks is 66.04 percent.
Ward is below average throwing the ball along the boundary at the intermediate level. These are the two levels of the field that create the most explosive plays in the passing game, and Ward is below average in both from the standard set by not only previous first rounders, but every quarterback I’ve charted since 2022.
Over the middle of the field, Ward does connect at a 76.92 percent clip. He is above average here. The average among every quarterback charted is at 70.53 percent and the average among first rounders is 74.2 percent. This is a promise of hope for Ward: his ability to both rifle and layer footballs over the middle of the field at a high level.
In the short game, Ward connects a little over 85 percent of the time with the average sitting at 86.58 percent. So he is about average at getting the ball out and accurately when he needs to find a checkdown or work the short game.
This gives Ward a total Weighted On-Target Percentage of 61.21 percent.
What quarterbacks closely align from a WOT% perspective?
One way to compare this class to other classes is by comparing the Weighted On-Target Percentage of Ward to those of previous classes. Over the past three draft classes, the average Weighted On-Target Percentage sits at 64.97 percent. The average of first rounders in that span is 67.25 percent.
As we’ve discussed, Ward’s sits at 61.21 percent, which is well below that standard.
Two other first rounders were taken over the last three years with a below average Weighted On-Target Percentage: J.J. McCarthy, who did not play for the Minnesota Vikings this season, and Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons. While more work would need to be done to evaluate Penix’s ball placement and accuracy this season, he did finish with just a completion percentage of 58.1 percent with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
Anthony Richardson, drafted by the Indianapolis Colts, would be the only first rounder with a lower Weighted On-Target Percentage than Ward. Richardson’s Weighted On-Target Percentage came in at 60.48 percent as he is still sorting out accuracy issues at the NFL level.
At this point, Michael Penix is the closest first round pick to compare Ward to from a Weighted On-Target Percentage perspective but we do not have enough data to really signify how that has translated for him at the NFL level.
Let’s wrap it up
Accuracy and ball placement matters.
It’s correlated well immediately for a guy like Jayden Daniels, who had the highest Weighted On-Target Percentage of any quarterback in last year’s class by nearly four percent. It’s correlated immediately for a guy like Anthony Richardson and the Colts in the opposite direction.
We don’t have enough evidence on guys like Penix Jr. or McCarthy, who are the only other first rounders drafted with a below average Weighted On-Target Percentage, but we’ll likely know by the end of next season.
Tools are tools, and Ward has plenty of them. The arm talent and the multitude of arm angles he can throw from are silly. He lit it up at Miami this season despite room to question the defenses he was playing, and figured out a way to cutdown on the turnovers in his fifth and final season.
But I question how much of what he was doing is translatable to NFL success, and that starts with his below-average accuracy. We’ll see! NFL scouting and even drafting from professionals is completely subjective and often yields hazardous results. I hope he proves me wrong.
However, based on his charting profile, I would have a hard time as a general manager using a top-32 pick on him, let alone the No. 1 overall pick.
How do we find out what someone like Josh Allen’s WOT% was in college?