Weighted On-Target Percentage: How did Conference Championship weekend pan out?
We take a look at how Drew Allar, Carson Beck, and Quinn Ewers performed during their Conference Championship games.
The 2025 NFL Draft quarterback class saw three of the most-known names play in a conference championship game: Penn State’s Drew Allar, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, and Georgia’s Carson Beck.
As I do every week, I have charted those three quarterbacks’ (more information on the likes of Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel who also played this weekend, and more is at the end of the article) outings. Allar fell short against Oregon, and Ewers and Beck had another mid-off with the Georgia quarterback leaving at halftime with an injury.
Not only will all of Allar, Beck (health pending), and Ewers be playing in the College Football Playoffs, but Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke will also get at least one extra game to showcase his skills.
Without jumping ahead too far, however, let’s review the three draftable quarterbacks that played in Conference Championship weekend:
Drew Allar, Penn State vs. Oregon
The Penn State quarterback made a few wow throws and kept the Nittany Lions in the game against Oregon. However, there was too much meat left on the bone by Allar in the Big Ten Championship game.
This was the worst that Allar has worked the short game all season. His accuracy when throwing screens to the boundary was off, and some of his throws to the sticks were just… poorly leveraged. There were a couple of seam shots as well that would have resulted in big gains and maybe even touchdowns if Allar found a way to connect.
He now has less than two weeks before taking in SMU in the College Football Playoffs needing a more efficient outing in that game if he wants to be taken seriously as a first round pick in 2025.
For now, I continue to have nothing to move me off of the stance that he has to go back to school.
Carson Beck, Georgia vs. Texas
Carson Beck played just the first half, then the last play of the game where he handed the ball off to Trevor Etienne after suffering an injury in his throwing arm after being strip-sacked on the final play of the first half.
Despite how the box score reads, Beck had a couple of nice shots deep down the field and a dig over the middle all dropped in the SEC Championship game. Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo did not open it up very much for Beck, but the quarterback made throws he needed to make.
Now, where the charting doesn’t tell the whole story: Beck had three turnover-worthy plays in a row to end the half, and none of them show up on the chart. Throwing back-to-back interceptions that got called back by penalties, those throws weren’t recorded game throws. But they were bad regardless of the penalties that negated them.
We’ll see if Beck can get back on the field with two weeks of rest, but if his season is over, he may want to consider returning to school. At which point Georgia may also tell him to transfer on out.
Quinn Ewers, Texas vs. Georgia
From the highest-rated recruit ever out of high school to an afterthought in the 2025 NFL Draft class, Ewers is in the same boat as Beck. He may seriously need to consider returning to school, and there is little chance Texas would take him back if he does with Arch Manning waiting in the wings.
Ewers just has no juice to throw the football to the opposite hash of the football field. This was the cause of his first interception where the ball was leveraged to the wrong shoulder of Isaiah Bond (who still should have made the catch). However, the ball fluttered its way to the boundary, giving the defensive back plenty of time to make a play on the football.
The Texas quarterback was a measly 2-of-7 throwing the ball outside of the numbers on the day. He did throw the ball down the field the best he has all season in this game, he once again proved that he is not the type of quarterback who pulls his team back, but has success when the context around him is clean.
The Longhorns seriously need to consider starting Arch Manning.
Ewers still has the lowest Weighted On-Target Percentage of any quarterback in this draft class. He’s nothing more than a mid-to-late Day 3 pick at this point.
What about Dillon Gabriel and the other QBs?
Dillon Gabriel is the best college quarterback in the nation. That does not always translate to NFL talent, however. So I have held off on charting him to prioritize the bigger names in the class. For the other names, like Gabriel, I will likely chart just the last six-game sample size to get them into my rankings and get a Weighted On-Target Percentage on them.
Gabriel is the exception. He has been stellar enough for me to set aside the time to potentially chart his full season. His arm is weak, comparing closest to a Dollar Tree Tua Tagovailoa, the main reason he is not getting NFL hype. However, he throws with enough accuracy and anticipation to make it as a potential backup quarterback.
I am going to the East-West Shrine Game as well, so those quarterbacks will get charted. Names going to that Bowl game include Syracuse’s Kyle McCord in addition to Rourke and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (my clear QB1 in the class). Other names who likely either get a Shrine or Senior Bowl invite that I’ll get a profile on include Ohio State’s Will Howard, Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard, and Louisville’s Tyler Shough.
For now, every chart is up to date in the Google Drive.